Numbers are funny (especially to me). They are funny because when you do examples like the buck:doe ratio, everything depends on the numbers you use when you start.


Here are the numbers used by the article BB mentions for Year 1:

Pre-fall (before hunting season) - 100 bucks, 100 does, 100 fawns

To me, that is an extremely flawed set of numbers to begin with. Those numbers represent deer. Those deer represented to start the year had to be in the womb, or alive, in Year 0 (the year before Year 1). Dang, that sounds confusing. You know what I am trying to say. Those 300 total deer either had to be alive at the end of Year 0, or their mother had to be alive. They did not just materialize out of the air.

We need to figure out what numbers belong for Year 0 to see if the numbers given to start Year 1 make any sense.

Year 0

Pre fall ? bucks, ? does, ? fawns
After season ?, bucks, ? does, ? fawns
After grown fawns ? bucks, ? does, 0 fawns

(here are the numbers again)

Pre-fall (before hunting season) - 100 bucks, 100 does, 100 fawns

The easiest ones to figure out for Year 0 are the number of bucks & does after the fawns were grown. The number of bucks & does before season in Year 1 is the same number of bucks & does after the fawns were grown in Year 0. These numbers have to be 100. There is no other semi-logical way for it to be any other numbers. So Year 0 now looks like:

Year 0

Pre fall ? bucks, ? does, ? fawns
After season 0 bucks, ? does, ? fawns
After grown fawns 100 bucks, 100 does, 0 fawns

The author of the study has all the bucks being killed during season. So I went ahead and put a 0 in that place. Since all the bucks were killed in season, and there HAS to be 100 bucks after the fawns were grown (assuming a 50/50 split in the sex of the fawns), there HAS to be 200 fawns alive after the season. There can be no other number. We now have:

Year 0

Pre fall ? bucks, ? does, 200 fawns
After season 0 bucks, ? does, 200 fawns
After grown fawns 100 bucks, 100 does, 0 fawns

A HUGE problem! The numbers we have in place HAVE to be correct (I think). BUT, we don't have room for any does to be left alive after the season. Not possible.

Using the author's methods, there is NO way the numbers used to start Year 1 could be correct (remember..those numbers HAVE to be created by the author's own circumstances).


I did not look at the numbers for the other examples. I've spent way too much time on this anyway.

My 2 cents.