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Thread: Rut Predictions

  1. #1
    Senior member blackbeard's Avatar
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    Rut Predictions

    Deer & Deer Hunting released Charles Alsheimer's 2012 Rut Forecast in the September 2012 issue. As most of you know I find Alsheimer's work to be very interesting and I follow it anxiously each year. For those of you who don't buy it and think the rut occurs at exactly the same time each year, this topic won't interest you. But for those of you who think that 16 years of study merits some consideration, here it is.

    To set the stage, the "Rutting Moon" is considered to be the second full moon after the Autumnal Equinox (09/22/12). Not since 2004 has the first full moon after the Autumnal Equinox occurred in September (09/30/12). This means the "Rutting Moon" (second full moon) will be in October this year (10/29/12) and not November. This has happened only 4 times in the last 17 years (1995-2011)!

    Therefore the "estimated" dates for the three main phases of the rut are:

    Seeking 10/29/12-11/05/12
    Chasing 11/02/12-11/09/12
    Breeding 11/09/12-11/16/12

    The phases always overlap somewhat as shown above. The first new moon after the rutting moon (11/13/12) always occurs during peak breeding as shown above.

    Alsheimer says the "sweet spot" will be 11/03/12 to 11/12/12. The sweet spot is the magic week when deer activity is greatest. Most importantly he considers this year's rut to be a synchronized rut which means it will be an intense rut with peak breeding taking place before 11/15/12. So no trickle rut, which is good news for you rut hunters.
    "...the deepest, most permanent features of all great moments outside are the names, faces, descriptions, and emotions. The antlers on the wall...well, they're just bones affixed to boards. But what they represent, however, is flesh and blood - fathers and sons, friends spending time with friends and the the seasons of life when the people we love were still with us. These old antlers on the wall...well, take a seat, my friend, and I'll tell you all about them." -Rev. Zeke Pipher


  2. #2
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    Very interesting!!!!! I am always off the last week of October and the first two weeks of November or so anyways. Yes, I plan it that way. Everyone knows at work this is my time and I get it!!!!!

  3. #3
    Member Buckstrike138's Avatar
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    Thanks Blackbeard, I know when to use my vacation days now! Good info, I need to check out Alsheimer's work.
    My Church is the woodlands and waterways, in them I have never felt closer to God.

    Genesis 27:3

    Now therefore take, I pray thee, thy weapons, thy quiver and thy bow, and go out to the field, and take me some venison;

  4. #4
    Senior Member Big_Holla's Avatar
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    Always look forward to seeing this stuff as in general Charles Alsheimer's predictions are right on for the area we hunt there in Ohio.
    Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
    - Thomas Edison


  5. #5
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    well that answers my question from the sunset table post...lol...thanks
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    Thanks blackbeard I just hope the weather holds up this year while im in ohio.

    Chad

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    you are right blackbeard,C.A.'s words are golden & I LISTEN CLOSE TO WHAT HE PREACH'S........GREAT INFO BB, WAY TO GET US PUMPPED UP

  8. #8
    Senior member blackbeard's Avatar
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    Yes, looks like we're setup for an intense, concise rut so now all we need is the weather to cooperate......and a shooter buck to walk within 30 yards of our stands! Can't wait, hoping for a better rut than recent years. Good luck.
    "...the deepest, most permanent features of all great moments outside are the names, faces, descriptions, and emotions. The antlers on the wall...well, they're just bones affixed to boards. But what they represent, however, is flesh and blood - fathers and sons, friends spending time with friends and the the seasons of life when the people we love were still with us. These old antlers on the wall...well, take a seat, my friend, and I'll tell you all about them." -Rev. Zeke Pipher


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    Great info Blackbeard...Thanks for the post

  10. #10
    My thoughts exactly. Haven't seen a rut like C.A has predicted for quite a few years. I like the way his dates are lined up too... Works well for the vacation!

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