Rut Predictions

Deer & Deer Hunting released Charles Alsheimer's 2012 Rut Forecast in the September 2012 issue. As most of you know I find Alsheimer's work to be very interesting and I follow it anxiously each year. For those of you who don't buy it and think the rut occurs at exactly the same time each year, this topic won't interest you. But for those of you who think that 16 years of study merits some consideration, here it is.

To set the stage, the "Rutting Moon" is considered to be the second full moon after the Autumnal Equinox (09/22/12). Not since 2004 has the first full moon after the Autumnal Equinox occurred in September (09/30/12). This means the "Rutting Moon" (second full moon) will be in October this year (10/29/12) and not November. This has happened only 4 times in the last 17 years (1995-2011)!

Therefore the "estimated" dates for the three main phases of the rut are:

Seeking 10/29/12-11/05/12
Chasing 11/02/12-11/09/12
Breeding 11/09/12-11/16/12

The phases always overlap somewhat as shown above. The first new moon after the rutting moon (11/13/12) always occurs during peak breeding as shown above.

Alsheimer says the "sweet spot" will be 11/03/12 to 11/12/12. The sweet spot is the magic week when deer activity is greatest. Most importantly he considers this year's rut to be a synchronized rut which means it will be an intense rut with peak breeding taking place before 11/15/12. So no trickle rut, which is good news for you rut hunters.

Very interesting!!!!! I am always off the last week of October and the first two weeks of November or so anyways. Yes, I plan it that way. Everyone knows at work this is my time and I get it!!!!!

Thanks Blackbeard, I know when to use my vacation days now! Good info, I need to check out Alsheimer's work.

Always look forward to seeing this stuff as in general Charles Alsheimer's predictions are right on for the area we hunt there in Ohio.

well that answers my question from the sunset table post...lol...thanks

Thanks blackbeard I just hope the weather holds up this year while im in ohio.

Chad

you are right blackbeard,C.A.'s words are golden & I LISTEN CLOSE TO WHAT HE PREACH'S........GREAT INFO BB, WAY TO GET US PUMPPED UP

Yes, looks like we're setup for an intense, concise rut so now all we need is the weather to cooperate......and a shooter buck to walk within 30 yards of our stands! Can't wait, hoping for a better rut than recent years. Good luck.

Great info Blackbeard...Thanks for the post

My thoughts exactly. Haven't seen a rut like C.A has predicted for quite a few years. I like the way his dates are lined up too... Works well for the vacation!

Great info BB. Thanks for posting. Looks like they finally decided to line up their rut with my vacation...lol

thanks for that info BB! most hunters know the best week year in and year out to be in the woods is the first week of November but its fun to discuss every season...lets just hope the rut is nothing like last year!

thanks BB for the info always nice to hear what days to be in the woods but i hunt every chance i get regardless but thanks for the info

Always a interesting article to read, but as I always do each year, try and be in your stand as much as possible from the last week of October till around Thanksgiving!

boy isnt that nice I I have 11/7-11-10 off work for the end of the PA bow season. This couldnt have worked out any better at least in theory.